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Weekly Stocks decline by 0.7pc: Positivity next week

By S N Syed

KARACHI: Pakistan Stock Exchange’s benchmark index fell 0.7 percent in the week while positive outlook is predicted next week amid financial results, analysts said.
Amreen Soorani at JS Research said after dust settling over results of the general elections, the investor base now has eyes set on the economic policies of the upcoming government, considering Pakistan’s burgeoning twin deficits and depleting reserves.
“With talks over the new government keeping all options of financial inflows open, including any potential IMF package, warning from the United States against IMF bailout that could aid China dented investor confidence,” Amreen said.
KSE-100 index lost 0.7 percent week on week to close at 42,505 level.
Volumes improved during the week as average daily turnover increased by 21 percent WoW to 284mn shares, while value traded increased by 37 percent WoW to US$96 million.
Foreign selling continued this week clocking-in at $14.6 million compared to a net sell of $0.36 million last week. Selling was witnessed in Exploration and Production ($7.1 million) and Commercial Banks ($5.7 million).
On the domestic front, major buying was reported by Individuals ($26.4 million) and Insurance Companies ($3.6 million). Volumes during the week settled at 284mn shares (up 21% WoW) while value traded arrived at USD 96mn (up 37% WoW).
Net selling from FIPI has accumulated to US$69mn during FY19 YTD and US$204mn during 2018 year till date.
BIPLS Research team said, “We expect the performance of market to remain contingent upon the developments on political front.
Additionally, the ongoing result season would also play its role in dictating the direction of index.”
A weekly market analysis report of Arif Habib Limited said they believe the market will fare better during next week as government is expected to form and progress on economic reforms is visible. That said, valuations at the bourse have come down and investors may find enticing options.
Sectors that pulled the stock market down this week were, Commercial Banks (-604pts) led by index-heavy HBL and UBL, Oil & Gas Exploration companies (-59pts), Insurance (-21pts), whereas, Fertilizers (+132pts), Tobacco (+87pts) and Power Generation & Distribution (+81pts) were observed bullish. Meanwhile scrips that traded in the red were HBL (-271pts), UBL (-214pts), MCB (-83pts) and PPL (-51pts).
Other major news include: Chinese $1bn loan pushes forex reserves up to 3-month high of $10.349bn,  CPI hits 4-year high of 5.8 percent in July as rupee devaluation weighs, Government to raise Rs5.7 trillion via T-bills auction, growth in first 100 days to set tone for economic stability, IMF’s bailout package not viable for economy.
Elixir Securities’ market report said political engineering will continue into the next week as both PTI and joint opposition try to garner support to lead the National Assembly by fielding their respective candidates.
“We expect PTI to manage electing their Prime Minister and Speaker, albeit with a very thin majority.
However once the dust settles, all eyes will be back on economy where investors would be keen to see how newly appointed government’s discussion with the IMF pan out.
Eyeing interest rate hikes and potential slowdown in economy, we continue to advise investors to trim positions in Cyclical sectors,” it said.

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